Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models

A new LM specification procedure to choose between Logistic and Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models is introduced. The new decision rule has better properties than those previously available in the literature when the model is ESTAR and similar properties when the model is LSTAR. A simple natural extension of the usual LM-test for linearity is introduced and evaluated in terms of power. Monte-Carlo simulations and empirical evidence are provided in support of our claims.     

Determinants of a sustainable innovation system

This study seeks to identify and define the determinants of the sustainable innovation system (SIS). To achieve the objective, a qualitative approach was used through a systematic literature review using data from Web of Science (WOS) and Scopus. Two search equations were used to extract the data. In the first search equation, 69 documents were analyzed, and for the second, 102 documents were analyzed. Multiple definitions were found regarding SIS, it is worth highlighting in the findings the evolutionary process that these systems follow. As a contribution to the study, 79 determinants of an SIS are presented derived from the classic functions of an innovation system.     

Carbon-accounting methods and reforestation incentives

The emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, and the consequent potential for climate change are the focus of increasing international concern. Temporary land-use change and forestry projects (LUCF) can be implemented to offset permanent emissions of carbon dioxide from the energy sector. Several approaches to accounting for carbon sequestration in LUCF projects have been proposed. In the present paper, the economic implications of adopting four of these approaches are evaluated in a normative context. The analysis is based on simulation of Australian farm–forestry systems. Results are interpreted from the standpoint of both investors and landholders. The role of baselines and transaction costs are discussed.     

What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?

We investigate the link between fiscal policy shocks and asset markets. Our results show that spending shocks have: a positive and persistent effect on GDP in the U.S. and in the U.K., while for Germany and Italy, such impact is temporary; a positive and persistent effect on housing prices; a negative effect on stock prices; and mixed effects on the price level. A VAR counter-factual exercise suggests that fiscal shocks play a minor role in the asset markets of the U.S. and Germany, and substantially increase the variability of housing and stock prices in the U.K., while government revenue shocks have increased volatility in Italy.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis

With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to “crowding-out” effects of private consumption and investment; have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and a mixed impact on the average financing cost of government debt. Explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model is also important. A VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive spending shocks create relevant “crowding-out” effects.     

Procurement cost reduction for customized non-critical items in an automotive supply chain: An action research project

This paper presents the processes involved in organizing a buyers' fair, a fair where first- and second-tier suppliers of the automotive industry make known their buying requirements for non-critical items to SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises). The fair allowed the procurement process of LCs (large companies) and the prospecting process of SMEs to be faster and less-expensive. The fair was the result of an action research project performed by the researchers in partnership with the Brazilian Federation of Industries.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.     

Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields

We assess the short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries using a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration. Given the existence of cross-country dependence regarding sovereign yields and its determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect estimator of Pesaran and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that in addition to common movements in sovereign yields, investors also consider country differences arising from specific factors (inflation, budgetary and current account imbalances, real effective exchange rates, and liquidity).     

The skill premium and economic growth with costly investment,complementarities and international technological-knowledge diffusion

We analyse the skill premium and the growth rate in an innovator-imitator general equilibrium growth model assuming (i) internal costly investment in both physical capital and R&D, (ii) complementarities between intermediate goods in production and (iii) technological-knowledge diffusion. We find that in the imitator country these three elements influence the economic growth rate and the skill premium. In the innovator country, while the growth rate is affected by costly investment and complementarities, the skill premium is not affected by any of our assumptions. It depends solely on the productive advantage of high-skilled over low-skilled labour, which suggests that the sustained increase in the skill premium observed in several developed countries over the last three decades may have been due to increases in such productive advantage.     

Incentives and disincentives for stakeholder involvement in participatory research (PR): lessons from potato-related PR from Bolivia,Ethiopia, Peru and Uganda

Participatory research (PR) has been presented as an alternative to develop sustainable agricultural technologies more responsive to farmer needs. However, the institutionalization of PR methods is influenced by stakeholders' perceptions about incentives and disincentives. The study was conducted by gathering and analysing information from farmers, facilitators and institutional representatives involved in conducting potato-related PR in Bolivia, Ethiopia, Peru and Uganda between 2005 and 2007. Results indicate that at the farmer level the most important incentives are related to the benefits they can acquire (improving human and social capital, which is essential for more sustainable results). At the facilitator level, operational and organizational factors represent incentives, for example, perception of additional benefits, existing capabilities and skills, and access to logistic support. Some factors also represent disincentives such response to different types of demands, and instability of jobs within institutions. At the organization level, both financial and operational factors represent incentives or disincentives, such as the cost of PR methods, availability of skillful human resources, quality of technologies generated and the sustainability of financial support. These factors at both individual and organizational level need to be taken into consideration by organizations aiming at scaling up and out-of-PR methods and derived technologies in a sustainable way.